TRANSURBAN GROUP (TCL)



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General Information
Company Name: Transurban Group
Stock Code: TCL
Website: www.transurban.com.au
GICS Sub-Industry: Highways & Railtracks
Market Cap ($M): 10,593
Equiv. Shares (M): 1,482

Current Price Data+
Current Price Open High Low Last Close Volume Price Movement
 $ 7.150 $ 7.110 $ 7.180 $ 7.105 $ 7.060 5,298,516 $ 0.090  1.275 %

Current Broker Consensus Recommendation more
Recommendation: Hold
Recommendation Date: 20th May 2013
12 Month Target Price (average): $6.443
Brokers Surveyed: 7

Company Overview

Business Description:
Transurban Group (TCL) is involved in the development, operation, and maintenance of toll roads business in Australia and North America.

Strategy Analysis:
TCL's strategy is to diversify its portfolio of toll roads, drive operational efficiencies and upgrade roads as needed. The cost reduction program initiated in June 2008 is progressing well and further savings should negate inflation pressures and see costs remain well contained over the medium-term. TCL´s portfolio has grown from a single road - CityLink in Melbourne - to a diversified portfolio over the last decade. In Australia, it acquired Hills Motorway in 2005, Sydney Roads Group in mid-2007 and the Lane Cove Tunnel in mid-2010. It entered the US market in 2006, securing a 99 year concession to operate the Pocahontas Parkway in Virginia. It subsequently secured two HOT lanes projects - a 75 year concession on the Washington Capital Beltway and a 73 year concession on the adjoining I-95. US expansion has disappointed so far. The 50% owned Sydney Westlink M7 opened in late 2005 and continues to ramp-up. The Melbourne CityLink upgrade finished late 2010. The recent widening of the Hills M2 will benefit traffic volumes in coming years on the M2, and the LCT and M7 which connect to it. The M5 upgrade completes end-2014. Distributions are based on free cash flow without debt. Transurban Group reported NPAT down 13.2% to $80.94m for the half-year ended 31 December 2012. Revenues from ordinary activities were $585.2m, up 2.5% from the same period last year. Toll revenue increased by 3.1% to $397.7m. The key driver behind the increase was the price escalation and traffic growth on CityLink, partially offset by the construction impact of the Hills M2 Upgrade works on traffic on the Hills M2 and Lane Cove Tunnel. Basic and Diluted EPS was 5.5 cents compared to 6.4 cents last year. Net operating cash flow was $181.01m compared to $182.81m last year. The interim dividend declared was 15.5 cents compared with 14.5 cents last year.


Financial Summary
Year to Jun NPAT EPS EPS chg (%) PER DPS Yield (%) Franking (%)
2014  F 68.0 4.5 188.7 157.5 34.2 4.8 25.0
2013  F 23.3 1.6 -189.4 455.4 31.0 4.3 25.0
2012  A -25.6 -1.8 -27.1 -312.0 29.5 5.4 25.0
Source: Morningstar analyst estimates.

Peer Comparison
EPS Growth (%) P/E (%) Dividend Yield (%)
Company Mkt Cap 2012 A 2013 F 2014 F 2012 A 2013 F 2014 F 2012 A 2013 F 2014 F
Asciano (AIO) $5,004 M 0.0166 0.3072 0.1557 20.0000 15.2997 13.2387 0.0146 0.0208 0.0237
Macquarie Atlas Roads (MQA) $890 M -- -- -- -- 16.1318 -- 0.0000 0.0302 0.0402
Transurban Group (TCL) $10,460 M -0.5166 0.0476 1.1641 186.7725 178.2828 82.3804 0.0418 0.0439 0.0478

Market Comparison
Earnings P/E Ratio P/B Ratio P/E Growth P/S Ratio
TCL 1.03 181.4 3.00 3.59 9.00
Market 0.84 14.8 1.26 1.90 1.75
Sector 1.09 15.0 1.48 1.44 1.40

Directors
Name Position Start Date
Mr Scott Charlton Chief Executive Officer 16 July 2012
Mr Lindsay Philip Maxsted Non-Executive Chairman 01 March 2008
Dr Robert (Bob) John Edgar Non-Executive Director 21 July 2009
Mr Neil Gregory Chatfield Non-Executive Director 18 February 2009
Samantha Mostyn Non-Executive Director 08 December 2010
Ms Christine O'Reilly Non-Executive Director 12 April 2012
Mr Ian Kingsley Smith Non-Executive Director 01 January 2012
Mr Rodney E Slater Non-Executive Director 22 June 2009
Ms Jennifer S Eve Non-Executive Director 18 September 2006
Mr James M Keyes Non-Executive Director 18 September 2006

Management
Name Position
Samantha Hogg Chief Financial Officer
Amanda Street Company Secretary
Andrew Head Group General Manager, New South Wales
Elizabeth Mildwater Group General Manager, Victoria
Julie Galligan Joint Company Secretary
Ken Daley President, International Development
Michael Kulper President, Transurban North America

Substantial Shareholders
Holding Name
98,867,357 (6.78%) Future Fund Board of Guardians
102,126,158 (7.00%) Rare Infrastructure Ltd
123,924,947 (8.50%) Treasury Group Limited

Calendar of Events
Date Event
04 February 2014 Report (Interim)
29 August 2013 Report (Annual)
14 August 2013 Div Pay Date
06 August 2013 Report (Prelim)
28 June 2013 Books Close
24 June 2013 Div Ex Date
© 2011 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The data and content contained herein are not guaranteed to be accurate, complete or timely. Neither Morningstar, nor its affiliates nor their content providers will have any liability for use or distribution of any of this information. To the extent that any of the content above constitutes advice, it is general advice that has been prepared by Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892 (a subsidiary of Morningstar, Inc.), without reference to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice and we recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision. If applicable investors should obtain the relevant product disclosure statement and consider it before making any decision to invest. Some material is copyright and published under licence from ASX Operations Pty Limited ACN 004 523 782 ("ASXO"). DISCLOSURE: Employees may have an interest in the securities discussed in this report. Please refer to our Financial Services Guide (FSG) for more information at www.morningstar.com.au/fsg.asp.

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